Alabama’s Population Shift: More Deaths Than Births Since 2020
By Sheila Duncan
Reporter
Since 2020, Alabama has faced a significant demographic shift: more people have died than babies have been born. While the state’s population continues to grow due to people moving in, this trend has raised concerns among policymakers. They worry about the workforce shortage and whether new industries will find enough employees to sustain economic growth.
This issue is not unique to Alabama. Birth rates have been declining worldwide, with many countries already experiencing population stagnation or decline. Despite the global population surpassing 8 billion, fertility rates have dropped significantly over the past 75 years—from about five children per woman in 1950 to just 2.2 in 2021. As of 2021, more than half of all countries had birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Experts predict that by 2040, deaths will outnumber births in the U.S. Alabama has already reached this milestone. Dr. Nyesha Black, a demographics expert at the University of Alabama, highlighted this shift at the Alabama Economic Outlook Conference, noting that the state’s changing demographics could impact its economy significantly.
Understanding Alabama’s Population Decline: In 1990, Alabama recorded over 63,000 births and more than 39,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population increase of over 24,000 people. Births continued rising until 2009, peaking at over 64,000, but deaths also increased, surpassing 50,000 by 2013. The turning point came in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the state recorded 57,643 births but 64,779 deaths. In 2021, the gap widened with nearly 11,000 more deaths than births, a trend that has continued each year since.
According to Dr. Black, this shift happened sooner than expected. “Before COVID, deaths were rising by about 1.1% per year. The flip to more deaths than births happened five to ten years earlier than projected.” The Economic and Workforce Impact: Alabama’s population exceeded 5 million in 2020, and the latest estimates show it now stands at 5,157,699. This growth is driven by migration rather than natural population increase. The Southeast, including Alabama, has been growing 0.2% faster than the rest of the U.S. due to factors like lower costs of living and better quality of life.
Former Commerce Secretary Greg Canfield warns that a declining birth rate could challenge Alabama’s ability to attract new industries. “We need more people in the workforce,” he said. “Our population is aging, and the percentage of people over 65 is higher than in many other Southern states.” Census data reveals that 17.8% of Alabama’s population is over 65. A LendingTree study ranked Alabama third among states where people are least likely to work past retirement, largely due to its low cost of living and overall quality of life.
The state’s labor force participation rate stood at 57.6% in November 2023, well below the national average of 62.5%. Dr. Black attributes much of this decline to an aging workforce, noting that around 70% of the drop in workforce participation is due to an aging population rather than a lack of willingness to work.
Why Are Birth Rates Declining? Several factors contribute to declining birth rates in Alabama and across the U.S. Women are marrying later and prioritizing careers, reducing the number of children they have. Financial burdens also play a role—raising children is expensive, and many young couples choose to invest in their own lives instead. Teen birth rates have also dropped significantly, and social media usage has been linked to lower fertility rates by reducing in-person interactions. While Alabama’s birth rate decline is among the slowest in the U.S.—ranking 49th with only a 5.5% drop from 2001 to 2020—the long-term effects could still be significant. A shrinking younger population could strain social programs like Social Security and impact industries such as higher education, where declining enrollments could threaten colleges and universities.
The Road Ahead: State leaders are focusing on increasing workforce participation to counteract these demographic changes. Companies moving to Alabama are already adjusting, with many employing retirees or shifting to more flexible work arrangements that attract younger workers.
As Dr. Black pointed out, the declining birth rate is more than just a statistic—it represents real social, economic, and political shifts that will shape Alabama for generations to come. Addressing these challenges will require strategic planning, workforce development initiatives, and policies that support families and economic growth.
